Community Picks - Dec 19
Last week: 2-1 (67%)
Thursday, December 19
Two-Team 6 Point Teaser: Denver +9 / Chicago +13
Denver (+9)
The Broncos and Chargers are two evenly matched teams tied for 1st place in Points Against with the Broncos ranking 2nd in Defensive Yards per Play while the Chargers are ranked 14th. Denver also owns the better rushing offense, rushing defense and 3rd down completion percentage and teasing them allows us to move the line through all the key numbers in what should be a low scoring game.
Chicago Bears (+13)
I normally don’t tease large underdogs, but the Detroit Lions have been hit hard by injuries, losing four more players for the rest of the regular season last week in their loss at home to Buffalo and I don’t believe the current line accurately reflects the dropoff in their injury riddled squad. They've failed to cover the point spread in each of their last three games, and barely beat the Bears on Thanksgiving. The Bears have dropped eight straight and the public has abandoned them creating additional line value. I often look to play against dome teams (Detroit) playing outdoors in the winter and the current forecast at game time is in the low 20s. Chicago has been eliminated from the playoffs and they will be motivated to upset their division rivals.
Friday, December 20
Tulane +12
“It's the most wonderful time of the year…” College Bowl Season! When it comes to bowl games, I like to focus my statistical analysis by limiting data to games played against other bowl teams. As an example, against other bowl teams, Tulane’s Yards per Play on Defense is 5.5 while Florida gives up 6.2 yards on average. With Tulane having both the better offense and better defense, take the generous points in this even matchup
Indiana +7
The first college playoff game in the new 12 team format features two 11-1 teams as the Indiana Hoosiers travel to Notre Dame. Indiana owns the best rush defense in college football, limiting opponents to 2.5 Yards per Rush (3.0 vs other bowler teams). They also possess the better overall defense, giving up only 4.5 Yards Per Play while the Golden Domers yield 5.2 Yard per Play on average. I’ll be taking the points with Indiana, and the outright upset wouldn't stun me.
Saturday, December 21
Tennessee +7
The college playoffs continue on Saturday with three more games, and we’ll look to the Tennessee Volunteers for our play. Tennessee owns statistical edges in a number of categories against other bowl teams including scoring differential( +8 vs +5), and yards per game differential (+83 vs +18) and they earned their rankings against an arguably tougher schedule as a member of the SEC. No doubt Ohio State will be motivated to erase the embarrassment of their fourth straight loss to Michigan, but I question the mindset of the players and coaching staff after such a disappointing loss.
Sunday, December 22
Pittsburgh Steelers +6
In a game between two teams battling for playoff position, we will go back to the well with Pittsburgh as they continue to rank well statistically and generally play to form. This week, the Steelers rank better than the Ravens in Points Against, Defensive Yards Per Play and Penalty Yards and my projection has them winning the game outright by a field goal. Take the points.
Arizona Cardinals -4.5
Another team we will look to for a win once again is the Cardinals, as they are fighting for a playoff spot in the tight NFC West and are superior to the Carolina Panthers in every statistical category that I track. They finally got a win last week after losing three straight, and there is value in this line as I have them winning by 16 points.
The current playoff picture heading into this week is as follows:
AFC
1. *Chiefs (13-1) | West
2. *Bills (11-3) | East
3. *Steelers (10-4) | North
4. *Texans (9-5) | South
5. Ravens (9-5) | Wild Card
6. Broncos (9-5) | Wild Card
7. Chargers (8-6) | Wild Card
In the Hunt: 8. Colts (6-8), 9. Dolphins (6-8), 10. Bengals (6-8)
NFC
1. *Lions (12-2) | North
2. *Eagles (12-2) | East
3. Buccaneers (8-6) | South
4. Rams (8-6) | West
5. *Vikings (12-2) | Wild Card
6. Packers (10-4) | Wild Card
7. Commanders (9-5) | Wild Card
In the Hunt: 8. Seahawks (8-6), 9. Falcons (7-7), 10. Cardinals (7-7), 11. 49ers (6-8), 12. Cowboys (6-8)
by Ricky Gentile
December 19, 2024