Community Picks - Jan 12

NFL Wildcard Weekend

Sunday, January 12

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills (-8.5)

Sunday kicks off another game with conflicting data, much like Saturday’s contests. Denver has the 3rd ranked defense in points scored against while Buffalo ranks 11th.  Even more dramatically, the Broncos rank 2nd in Yards Per Play on defense while the Bills rank 21st.  Buffalo was 2-3 against fellow playoff teams this season, and allowed 33 points per game versus playoff teams this season, the fourth most all-time by a playoff team.  But as I pointed out in yesterday’s column, home favorites of more than a touchdown in the wild card round are now 18-1 SU and 15-4 ATS since 2005, a trend that is tough to fade.  Did Denver leave it on the field last week in their 38-0 drubbing of the Chiefs? Pass

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-5)

This is a rematch of the Week 1 game in Brazil that the Eagles won 34-29. Philadelphia leads the league in defensive Yards per Play and offensive Rushing Attempts per game and is 2nd in points scored against. Green Bay is playing their best ball right now and is peaking at the right time although Jordan Love is a bit banged up and had to leave last week’s game.  The current line of Philadelphia -5 seems correct and I can see this game going either way. Pass

Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

What team leads the league in 3rd down completion percentage?  The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Washington is ranked 6th).  The Bucs also hold significant edges in defensive rush attempts and penalty yards per game. Washington’s defense is the lowest overall ranked D in the league.  Jayden Daniels has been outstanding this year, but Baker Mayfield's playoff experience (3-1 ATS) puts me on the Bucs today.  Tampa Bay -3

by Ricky Gentile

January 11, 2025