Community Picks - Jan 24

NFL Divisional Championships

Our teaser approach worked for us last week.

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6) 

Philadelphia is the superior team in this matchup and that is reflected in the point spread.  Defensively, they are ranked 1st in Yards per Play and 2nd in Scoring. Offensively, they rank 2nd in Rushing Attempts.  Defense and rushing win championships.  Washington is playing their fourth road game in a row this week. Since 2013, five teams have found themselves playing their fourth road game in a row in the postseason and they all lost.  Jalen Huts’s knee is a question; his rushes may be reduced, but Saquon Barkley should be able to handle the load.  By teasing Philadelphia to PK, all we need is a win.

 Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)

Kansas City is playing in their seventh straight AFC Championship game and the home team in AFC title games is 15-3 SU over the last 18 years.  Buffalo holds advantages in Yard per Point and Yard per Play differential.  Both teams protect the ball and I expect this game to be played cleanly and conservatively.  Much has been made about the favorable calls (and non calls) benefitting KC, and I wonder if the refs will be subconsciously calling a tighter game.  I wrote last week that “everyone knows how Patrick Mahomes can take a game over and create magic.”  Could the spell be broken and Buffalo finally break through and win a title? Kansas City has won their games this season by an average of  4 points.  Buffalo has won by an average of 10.  Let’s take advantage of being able to move the line through the key numbers of +3, +4, and +7 by taking Buffalo in the second lag of a two team 6 point teaser.

I’ve played a  Two-Team, 6 Point Teaser:  Philadelphia Eagles (PK) and Baltimore Bills (+7.5)