Community Picks - Nov 15th

Welcome back to our weekly picks for college and NFL football.

We started this column in impressive fashion last week, going 4-1 ATS, with all four dogs winning outright!  This week’s card is more challenging, but I’ve isolated four games (plus a couple of teasers) where we have an advantage.  Best of luck!

By Ricky Gentile

November 15, 2024

Last week’s results: 4-1 (80%)

Kansas +3

Kansas came through last week as expected, beating Iowa State.  We are back on them again this week as they face unbeaten BYU.  Remember in Lesson One of my Sports Betting Master Class, I explained that your primary objective as a bettor is to find games in which the public’s perception is off, and this game fits the bill.  The average “square” bettor sees an unbeaten team facing off against a team with a losing record and assumes that a blowout is in the cards, but we know that the later in the season a team remains unbeaten, the greater the pressure to keep their unblemished record. Facing a team with a losing record can create a false sense of security, and I expect to see an upset here. 

Wisconsin +13.5

As we saw last week, the public loves undefeated favorites creating value for you and me.  Undefeated road favorites from game 9 and after, struggle under the pressure of continuing their perfect streak, particularly against winning teams with stingy defenses.  Take the points with Wisconsin over Oregon.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3

Lamar Jackson is the frontrunner for league MVP again this year, but the Baltimore defense is struggling, having given up more yards than they’ve gained in two of their last three contests, and allowing season-high yards in each!  Meanwhile, Pittsburgh ranks 2nd in scoring defense behind only the LA Chargers and is 10th in Yards Per Play on defense while Baltimore is 27th.  

Kansas City Chiefs +2

The wrong team is favored in this game!  Kansas City is better in almost every statistical category, including ranking 1st in Offensive 3rd Down Conversion (Buffalo is 15th) and 7th in Defensive Yards per Play (Buffalo ranks 17th).  

KC is also worth considering in a 6 point teaser (moving them through the key numbers of 3, 4, and 7) to +8 with either San Francisco 49ers ( -½ ) or Minnesota (PK).