Community Picks - Nov 22

Last week’s results: 3-1 (75%)

Season to Date:  7-2 (78%)

We continued our winning ways in NCAA football last week going 2-0 including Kansas's upset of previously unbeaten BYU (as predicted here) and bringing our record to 4-1 in college football. Our NFL picks split, bringing our record to 3-1.

Football Point Spread Winners

By Ricky Gentile

November 22, 2024

NCAA: 

An underwhelming card this week presents fewer games in which we hold an advantage, so we’re only going with one here.

BYU + 3

You saw previously that I love to bet against a team which lost its first game this late in the season.  Generally, the letdown of the end of their unbeaten streak is too tough emotionally to overcome.  But this game is different.  Yes, BYU lost its first game last week. But this week, they are an underdog and teams in this scenario tend to cover.  Additionally, Arizona State is in a lookahead spot as they face instate rival Arizona next week.  Take the points!

NFL:This time of year, I lean more heavily on statistical analysis as each team has produced a full data set and established more predictable personalities.

Let’s start by applying some of the guidelines I shared  in Monday’s column on Teasers.

I project  both Denver and San Francisco to win by more than a touchdown and are both worth looking at as wagers on their own.  By combining them in a two-team six-point teaser however, we get to move their respective lines through key numbers and bring Denver down from a 6 point favorite to a pick ‘em  and San Francisco from +2.5 to + 8.5.

Teaser: Denver (Pk) and San Francisco (+8.5) 

Arizona (PK) 

Arizona is better in almost every statistical category I monitor and should win this game by 10 points.

LA Chargers + 3

The Chargers remain the best defense in the league as measured by Points Allowed, and are significantly better than the Ravens in Defensive Yards per Play and should not be getting points at home, especially on Monday Night!

Good luck!