Community Picks - Nov 30

This is the final week of the NCAA regular season and week 13 in the NFL. With games already having been played on Thursday and Friday, the remaining short card provides fewer opportunities to exploit.

Appalachian State (+2.5)

The final week of the College season finds teams on the bubble and needing a win to earn a bowl bid.  Since 2015, when those five-win teams faced teams with better records in their last game, they are 43-30-2 ATS (61.9%).  Throw in the fact that Appalachian State is 9-4 ATS as an underdog, and we have a solid play.

New Orleans Saints (+3, buy the hook)

Here we have two teams going in opposite directions.  The Rams have lost  two of their last three while New Orleans has won two in a row. The Rams have been outscored by 43 points this season and the Saints have outscored their opponents (although barely). The Rams defense fails to inspire confidence ranking 26th in points allowed and second to last in 3rd down conversion percentage. Additionally, the Saints are coming into this game with extra rest after their bye last week, are playing their third straight game at home, and are 10-0 at home in this series. The wrong team is favored! Play New Orleans.

San Francisco 49ers (+7)

While the Bills currently enjoy a four-game lead in the NFC East, the 49ers are fighting for their playoff lives and reside in the cellar of the tightly packed NFC West. We were stunned last week when Brock Purdy was listed as inactive after this column was published and we consequently suffered a loss with them.  This week, Purdy has practiced all week and is expected to start.  The 49er defense continues to shine and is ranked 6th in Defensive Yards per Play while Buffalo is 15th, and they have outyarded their opponents by 80 yards per game (YPG)  while the Bills have only outyarded their opponents by 24 YPG.  Heavy snow is forecast up until game time and if the weather is dicey, the 49ers will likely rely on their 7th ranked rushing offense against Buffalo’s 28th defensive rank in Yards per Rush Attempt.  Take the generous points!

Good luck!

By Ricky Gentile

November 29, 2024