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Sports Betting Master Class
Lesson One: Know Your Opponent
By Ricky Gentile
November 9, 2024
The first step in any battle is to size up your opponent in order to assess their weaknesses. But in the battle of sports betting, the first step is to identify your opponent. Most sports bettors mistakenly believe that their opponent is their bookmaker or oddsmaker, but they would be mistaken. You see, your bookie is merely a middleman, and the pointspread, an illusion. Contrary to popular belief, the pointspread is not the oddsmaker's prediction of the outcome of the game, but the number they believe will evenly divide the public’s money. In a standard wager (pointspread or total), the bettor risks $11 to make $10. The better the oddsmaker is at predicting the public’s perception of the outcome of the game, the closer he will come to having a balanced book, in other words having the same total handle (amount wagered) on each side of a proposition. In this scenario, he takes the loser’s $11 and pays the winner $10 and keeps a dollar for his services. Once you understand this important fact, you can identify your true opponent: the other bettors! Your goal is to identify games in which the public’s perception is off, causing the oddsmaker to put out a line which reflects that, and creating value. This weekend, pay attention to games with results that will likely leave an impression on the public (think blowouts, heartbreaking losses, etc) and a subsequent overreaction which may create opportunities on next week’s card.
My Winners
November 9, 2024
Kansas +3
In Lesson One of my Sports Betting Master Class, I explained that your primary objective as a bettor is to find games in which the public’s perception is off, creating value in the line. As an example, most people mistakenly believe that when a winning team finally loses a game, particularly one in which they were favored by double digits, they will rebound solidly the next week. But the fact is that they rarely are able to “get it up again” so quickly and usually fail to cover in their next game as well. Take Kansas and the points and look for Iowa State to have trouble getting back up off of the mat after last week's close loss as 13.5 point favorites to Texas Tech.
Georgia Tech +10
The public loves undefeated favorites, and this creates value for you and me. Undefeated road favorites from game 9 and after, struggle under the pressure of continuing their perfect streak, particularly against stingy defenses. Take the points with Georgia Tech against Miami of Florida.
LSU +3
Lots of factors lead us to LSU this week, including the public overreacting to Alabama’s 34-0 blowout win over Missouri last week. LSU sports a better offense and defense than Alabama (as measured by yards per game) and will look to avenge last year’s loss. Alabama should not be favored on the road at LSU. Take the points!
New Orleans +3.5
What happens when a struggling team dumps its coach or benches a marquee quarterback? The team has an opportunity to demonstrate that their losses were all the fault of the recently departed or demoted, and make a maximum effort to win the game. Already this season, we witnessed Cleveland win a decisive victory immediately after the departure of Deshaun Watson and there are countless other examples over the years. In this case, Dennis Allen was fired after the Saints embarrassing loss to Carolina last week, and they will be up for their game against NFC South leading Atlanta. Additionally, a number of injured Saints are expected to return to the lineup this week, including quarterback Derek Carr.
Pittsburgh +2.5
Washington has outperformed the public’s expectations so far this year (but not mine… I cashed my season win total bet of over 6.5 last week… only halfway through the season!) but they shouldn't be favored over Pittsburgh. Washington is in a difficult scheduling spot, likely to be caught looking ahead to next week’s division matchup against Philadelphia who is nipping at their heels in the race for the NFC East title. Pittsburgh’s defense is ranked second in scoring (behind only the Chargers) and fourth in Yards Per Rush on Defense (YPRD) while Washington ranks second to last in YPRD (better than only the NY Giants). Obviously, we prefer getting 3 points if it becomes available.