Sign in Subscribe

Superbowl Picks

Last updated on 
Superbowl Picks

Super Bowl Special Edition

Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) Vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The Super Bowl features a rematch of the 2023 game when the Chiefs won 38-35 after closing as -1.5 favorites with a Total of 51.5. Looking at this year’s contest, Philadelphia looks to be the superior team.  Defensively, they are ranked 1st in Yards per Play and 2nd in Scoring in the league. Offensively, they rank 2nd in Rushing Attempts.  Defense and rushing win championships.  The Yards per Rush differential favors Philadelphia as well (+0.8 vs. -0.3 for KC) as does the overall Yard per Play differential (+0.7 vs. -0.3).  Despite the current preoccupation with the Chief benefiting from preferential officiating, the data show that Philadelphia is penalized fewer yards per game than Kansas City on average. For these and a number of other reasons, we are going with the Eagles this year.

Recommended Plays:

  • Philadelphia Eagles +1.5
  • Under 49
  • Teaser: PHI +7.5 / Under 55
Bet these Picks

Propositions:

A significant portion of the total handle on the Super Bowl consists of prop bets.  They are fun, keep betters involved in the game, and offer large returns when parlayed. The danger is that there are so many, you can pick the game winner correctly and still wind up losing money! It’s important to remember that the betting public loves to bet “over” and “yes” on props, so the smart play is usually to best “under” or “no.”  Since props vary wildly from book to book, and the lines are very fluid, I’m hesitant to make any specific recommendations, but here are a couple to look for:

  • Game tied after 0-0: With a pointspread relatively close to pick ’em, this prop makes sense, it merely requires getting tied at any point during the game, and it's won eight out of the last 11 years!
  • TD Under 3.5 yards has cashed 21 out of the last 23 years.
  • Teams to score last in the Super Bowl win the game,  cashed in each of the last 15 games.
Bet These Picks

And here a few to stay away from, never hitting in the prior 23 Super Bowls: 

  • Each team to have a TD and a FG in each half: 0-23 
  • A punt return for a touchdown: 0-23
  • Any player with 200+ receiving yards: 0-23