Weekly Picks Special - Thanksgiving Games

There are four football games being played on Thanksgiving Thursday, and we celebrate with turkey and a special edition of our picks and recommend wagers.

NFL:  Three games begin week 13 in the NFL today and here is my take on each of them.

Chicago @ Detroit: Pass

Detroit is the best team against the spread over the past 4 years and attracting lots of public money every week, so this may be our opportunity to catch extra value by bucking the public. The move from the opening line of -11.5 to -9 however is right in line with where my numbers put this game, so I have to pass on it. 

New York Giants @ Dallas:

NYG/DAL Over 37.5

The Giants rank 28th in Defensive Yards per Play (DYPP) and Dallas ranks 30th in DYPP and 31st in Points Against.  These teams should be able to move the ball a bit against each other.  Add in the fact that over the past ten years, large division dogs of ten or more points that won outright the week before (Dallas) are 17-1 to the Over the following week.

NYG + 3.5

UPDATE 7:50 PM 11/27 - The Giants just announced that third string quarterback Drew Lock will get the start due to a shoulder injury to Tommy DeVito. He is just  3-12 SU in his last fifteen NFL starts, so we now lean to the Cowboys in this one.

Miami @ Green Bay

MIA +3.5

My numbers have Miami winning outright, so getting points here is a bonus.

College Football: There is only one NCAA game on the card today, Memphis @ Tulane.

Memphis +14

In a game that could have College Football Playoff implications, two teams with identical 9-2 records square off and one of them is a 14 point favorite!

Tulane has already secured a spot in the American Conference title game and Memphis (who was the preseason favorite to win the conference) has pride and double revenge as extra motivation. 

Tulane hasn't been this large a favorite against Memphis since 1998 when the Green Wave closed 16-point favorites and won by 10. The next closest is 2011 when Tulane was -12.5 and lost the game outright.

This line is at least a touchdown off.  Take the generous 14 points with Memphis.

Ricky Gentile 

November 27, 2024