Community Picks - Dec 6
NCAAF Conference Championships
The card this week has nine conference championship games, beginning with three this evening and featuring four FBS programs that changed conferences this year: Texas (SEC), Oregon (Big Ten), Arizona State (Big 12), SMU (ACC). Additionally, this is the week that will determine the final spots in the new 12 team playoff.
NFL Picks Added Dec 7 at 10:20pm EST
Friday Night:
Jacksonville State (-4)
There have been 113 same-season rematches in college conference title games since 2000.
Same-season revengers are just 52-58 SU and 55-55 ATS in conference championship contests, but are 11-6 SU and 12-5 ATS when coming off a season-ending loss as Jackson State is tonight (Jackson State lost to Western Kentucky last Saturday 19-17). With the superior coach and JSU having won 12 out 13 games against Conference opponents, I like Jackson State to get their revenge.
Army (+4)
Teams in conference championship games, coming off a season-ending loss as a favorite of more than -11 points (Tulane), are 1-7-1 ATS since 2005. Throw in Army's superior statistical resume (ex: 1.7 Yards per Rush differential vs 0.8 YPR differential for Tulane) and I believe that the wrong team is favored. Take Army!
Saturday:
Iowa State (+1.5)
The Cyclones find extra motivation in the role of underdog, having gone 16-7 ATS since 2021. Despite Arizona State’s current run of five straight wins (SU and ATS), so does the public, creating value in the line for us. I love teams that returned seventeen or more starters from the prior year and Iowa State clicks all of the boxes for me.
Georgia (+3, buy the hook)
In another same season rematch, Georgia returns to Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta where they dismantled Clemson 34-1 in the first game of the season. The Bulldogs will look to hold serve in these friendly confines against a Texas team they beat by fifteen points in October. I’ll take Kirby Smart over Steve Sarkisian in what should prove to be a low-scoring, tightly contested affair.
Penn State (+3.5)
You’ve seen in this column my love for betting against late season undefeated teams and we are afforded one more opportunity to do so. Penn State is better in just about every statistical category, including a 174 Yards per Game differential vs 155 for Oregon, and 1.9 Yards Per Rush differential vs. 1.4 for Oregon, among others. Penn State in the upset!
NFL Week 14 presents us with another tough, short card with six teams enjoying the final byes of the season. Currently, only nine teams in the AFC and eleven in the NFC are realistically in the mix for the fourteen playoff spots. If the playoffs were to begin this week, the seedings would be:
AFC:
1. Chiefs (11-1) West
2. Bills (10-2) East
3. Steelers (9-3) North
4. Texans (8-5) South
5. Chargers (8-4) Wild Card
6. Ravens (8-5) Wild Card
7. Broncos (8-5) Wild Card
In the Hunt: 8. Colts (6-7), 9. Dolphins (5-7)
NFC:
1. Lions (11-1) | North
2. Eagles (10-2) | East
3. Seahawks (7-5) | West
4. Falcons (6-6) | South
5. Vikings (10-2) | Wild Card
6. Packers (9-3) | Wild Card
7. Commanders (8-5) | Wild Card
In the Hunt: 8. Buccaneers (6-6), 9. Cardinals (6-6), 10. Rams (6-6), 11. 49ers (5-7)
With the better betting options taking place in the NCAA Conference Championships this weekend, and an underwhelming NFL card lacking underdogs of interest, we’re going to go with one small favorite:
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)
The Cardinals are still in the playoff hunt, sitting in the ninth seed and needing to pick up a couple of spots to get into the dance while Seattle sits in the third seed leading the NFC West with five games remaining. In what at first glance looks like a fairly even match of teams ranked 11 (ARI) and 12 (SEA) in points scored against, significant differences in penalty yards, and 3rd down conversion percentage begin to tip the scale Arizona’s way. Additionally, Seattle’s dismal 28th rank in rushing attempts per game combined with their having won and covered 3 straight games as dogs has me expecting a letdown. My number has Arizona winning by a touchdown and after letting us down last week, we look for them to avenge their week 12 loss at Seattle.
By Ricky Gentile
December 6, 2024